How Na`Vi Beat NiP at SLTV StarSeries IX – A Statistical Analysis of the Grand Final

After taking a look at Ninjas in Pyjamas' victory over Virtus.pro at Copenhagen Games the second part of the statistical analysis will be with NiP on the receiving end of a loss. OnGamers checked out the stats and figures of the match that crowned Natus Vincere with their first CS:GO title, at SLTV StarSeries IX.

De_Dust2 (16-13 Victory Na`Vi)

De_Dust2 (16-13 Na`Vi). Team first frag rate: 13-8 (NiP 5-3; Na`Vi 8-5).

The match started on Dust2 after Ninjas in Pyjamas had a convincing victory over Titan under their belt in the lower bracket final, and despite losing the first pistol NiP managed to bring things back with a second round force-buy win. That prompted a 2-map game which was partly about a lacking rate of entry frags for NiP, and most importantly a loss of very crucial rounds at multiple times throughout the final.

Ninjas in Pyjamas had their largest lead of the half at 6-3 after some hard-fought rounds in which they were saved by clutches at the hands of GeT_RiGhT, but as a result they never managed to get their money up to a safe amount. Meanwhile Na`Vi scored 8 bomb plants in their Terrorist half which secured them force buys almost every round. When the home team finally managed to get the Natus Vincere squad down to a full eco they lost the round and subsequently let Na`Vi start a 4-round run.

Ultimately though Na`Vi had only a moderately successful T-half in which, despite creating 7 5v4 situations, they had only 40% conversion rate on their strategies. However, the financial problems of NiP allowed for a short run which secured them 7 rounds nonetheless.

When NiP changed to the Terrorist side they had a distinct advantage on the slightly T-favoured map, especially after taking the pistol round, but it would turn out that in fact the pistol round would be the only round on which NiP could convert a 5v4 situation into a victory, losing 3 other 5v4 situations. Furthermore their normal entry fragger, Adam "Friberg" Friberg, was rather cold on the second half, giving away first blood on 4 rounds while only scoring 2 of his own entries.

During the map, and more so afterwards, there was much ado about Na`Vi stacking bombsites and perfectly predicting NiP's movements around the map, and it has to be said that this was much ado about nothing. Checking the stack rates of Na`Vi, by watching the amount of rounds on which the home team changed drastically from their "standard" set-up (which was very mid-heavy) it becomes clear that in fact Natus Vincere had very little special reactions. On just 4 of their 13 CT rounds, a meagre 30%, did they adapt their set-up to deal with Ninjas in Pyjamas. This also shows by NiP scoring 7 bomb plants in those 13 rounds, showing they actually controlled the bombsites most of the time. Comparatively Na`Vi had 6 plants in 15 rounds.

Instead though what the bundling allowed Na`Vi to do is re-take consistently and impressively. By grouping their members up at positions around the map they caught NiP's insistent split-pushing, having great trades and giving away virtually no free rounds. As a result, the only strategy which consistently worked was an A split with most focus on short, while the CT's were gambling on long. Admittedly though that is very hard to predict, execute and too risky for the Terrorists to do too often.

De_Inferno (Victory Na`Vi 16-8)

De_Inferno (16-8 Na`Vi). Team first frag win rate: 16-0 (NiP 7-0, Na`Vi 9-0)

The second map of the grand final, and incidentally also the final map as Na`Vi emerged victorious, was once more a case of an early run by Na`Vi, once again because of financial hardship on NiP's side. Surprisingly, while Na`Vi won their Terrorist half on inferno with an 8-7 scoreline by winning only 4 gun rounds, capitalizing on NiP's money time and time again, forcing them onto 4 eco rounds in just 1 half.

After losing the Pistol the Swedes went for a pistol and armor buy which absolutely needed to do some damage but instead did absolutely nothing. The third round of eco also caused just one death for Na`Vi, who planted the bomb on all 3 of the first rounds. As a result in rounds 2 and 3 NiP invested approximately $7,500 to do just $3,700 economic damage on Starix, while Na`Vi saved all their other guns and earned an additional $8,000 in bombplants.

This all ended up in Ninjas in Pyjamas having a very lacklustre round 4 buy with limited grenades, allowing Na`Vi another win and forcing the Swedes back on another eco round. Once NiP managed to score some rounds again they came at a heavy cost. Na`Vi planted the bomb on both rounds and managed to kill 5 NiP players during those rounds. Once Na`Vi scored yet another round victory at a 5-2 scoreline it immediately forced yet another make-or-break force-buy by NiP, allowing the home team to run out to an 8-2 head start.

Impressively NiP brought the score back to 8-7 once they got their money under control, but immediately they caught themselves with next to no cash when they started their own Terrorist half. Despite winning the pistol with their convincing quad-rush NiP gave up the following round to a shotgun triple by Denis "Seized" Kostin. Being 9-8 down the Swedes hoped for a miracle by surprising Na`Vi with another Pistol armor buy, but this exact choice turned out disastrous. NiP invested all their money and ended up dealing 0 damage, forcing themselves onto a full-eco and giving Na`Vi the perfect way to build up their own finances.

The 5th round in the half Na`Vi sealed the deal with a perfect shut-down of NiP, bringing the score to 12-8 and putting NiP on yet another full eco. Overall NiP could only fight on equal terms 5 times in the second half including the pistol, out of a total of 9 rounds.

Not only did the economic situation impact NiP, but also the fact that throughout the map Na`Vi were relentless in their execution. Of their 9 opening frags Natus Vincere converted all of them into victories throughout the map, meaning that despite NiP winning all 7 of their 5v4 situations the Swedes never managed to stop the home team either.

Although both teams were gambling throughout the game, Na`Vi mainly positional and Nip mainly financial, NiP ended up losing out more than Na`Vi, which is why the rock-solid home team ended up taking the victory. While Na`Vi shut down NiP's delicate splits the Swedes also hurt themselves by digging some very deep holes through lost force-buy rounds.

*Eco rounds were not used in the stat tables, while force buys were.

picture property of fragbite.se

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