onGamers Predictions Round 2- TSM vs LMQ, C9 vs CRS, and Dig vs CLG
The North American quarter-finals have come and gone and Dignitas and Counter Logic Gaming are both now out of competition for a 2014 World Championships spot. Dignitas and TSM slugged it out in a 4 game series that ended with Team Solomid emerging victorious. In the other quarterfinal, Curse swept aside Counter Logic Gaming in very one sided series. This week we head to PAX where the semi-finals of the North American LCS playoffs will take place and like last time, we're going to predict the outcomes of the semi-finals and the 5th place match.
| Staff | Prediction Rate |
|---|---|
| Daniel 'Spellsy' Biery, Nilu 'Dooraven' Kulasingham, Kelsey Moser | 2-0 |
| Travis Gafford, Derek 'Kathix' Adams, Hunter Leigh | 1-1 |
| Duncan 'Thorin' Shields, Daniel 'd1dx' Yordanov | 0-2 |
CLG Vs. DIG - 1 Predicts CLG, 7 Predict Dig.
Why CLG will win - Kelsey Moser (@karonmoser)
Based on a first look at the most recent performance from both teams, Counter Logic Gaming appears much worse for wear than Team Dignitas. For one thing, Dignitas won a game in their series against Team SoloMid, while CLG suffered three straight losses. In addition, two of CLG’s losses were embarrassingly rough, while the series between TSM and Dignitas appeared much closer throughout.
It’s for this reason precisely that CLG will win this best of five. The problems that cost CLG games and contributed to their two more devastating losses arguably stemmed from two main factors: champion select and mental pressure. The team chose hyper carry champions for Link when he hasn’t played that role in the team for much of the season—or, for that matter, his career—and the team made no effort to block Curse from gaining certain preferred power picks like Nidalee until they were two games down. Then, they opted to leave Maokai open for two rounds without snatching it up in the third game.
In addition, CLG’s history of choking when they have a lot to gain has reared its head once again. Yet without the pressure to succeed after a trip to Korea that fans hyped as a solution to CLG’s problems on their shoulders, many now expect CLG to lose this set against Dignitas. This should alleviate certain high pressure jitters and allow CLG to actually apply some of the solutions they found to their problems in bootcamp.
Dignitas’ issues, meanwhile, seem to be more systemic. Even according to our illustrious panel, Dignitas’ loss was much more expected against TSM than CLG’s against Curse. This is the result of Dignitas’ performance starting to flag much earlier in the Summer Split than CLG’s. KiWiKiD has gained a lot of criticism lately for getting caught out warding, which reflects a troubled communication flow within the team. Then, one of the team’s strong supposed carries, Shiphtur, has been playing somewhat more timidly. This longer trend may prove more difficult to shake off.
A head-to-head breakdown should also favor CLG. CLG’s main roster has won the last five games in a row against Dignitas—this obviously exempts the victory of Dignitas over Bizarro CLG. In addition, CLG is a team that is much more likely to close out games with a lead, even considering their struggles in their series against Curse, and Spellsy’s breakdown of CS at 10 minutes doesn’t show a very strong tendency for any of Dignitas’ lanes to pick up definitive advantages early over their CLG counterparts. By the final metric, the one Spellsy most recommends, every single one of CLG’s lanes picks up a greater CS advantage at ten minutes more often than their counterparts on Dignitas. This includes the surprising case of Seraph and ZionSpartan. The ball is in CLG’s court to carry through.
Of course, external factors will play a part. CLG’s organization has been under focus fire from critics since their loss, and this could lead to definite demoralization and tilt. Doublelift, a long-time star and now the most senior member of the starting lineup, has openly contemplated quitting competitive play on twitter. If there’s one factor that will tip the series in Dignitas’ favor, it’s this. If CLG fall under pressure, the same issues from their games against Curse will rear their heads, and CLG will find themselves playing the Promotion.
Why Dig will win - Daniel ‘d1dx’ Yordanov (@d1dx_)
In just a day, Team Dignitas or CounterLogic Gaming will join Complexity and Evil Geniuses in the Promotion/Relegation phase. Falling victim to TSM and Curse, respectively, the former will now have to face each other in a grueling best of five which would determine their fate in the NA LCS. With that and recent events in mind, I think Team Dignitas will edge out CounterLogic Gaming and solidify their 2015 Season NA LCS spot.
On paper, the match is a walk in the park – CLG have five wins against DIG in the regular season, but as we have witnessed time and time again, playoffs are a different ballgame. To begin with, DIG has a more polished pick and ban phase. Despite the loss from TSM, they had a clear idea of what to remove from their opponent to try and execute their plan in their best capabilities. With proper planning and analysis, Dignitas can safely target one or two critical CLG targets and potentially, limit their impact on the match.
In three key areas – top, mid and jungle, I give DIG the edge. Starting from top lane, ZionSpartan has showcased that he can perform in the big games as was made evident form his almost solo win in game 1 versus TSM. Against him is a very shaky Seraph who is in for a world of hurt, should he give Zion just a bit of ground. With the latter’s champion pool ranging from tanky initiators to hard carries, I do not see an opportunity where this match-up would go in CLG’s favour.
Moving on we have Crumbzz versus Dexter. While both are great junglers in their own right, it is clearly visible that at the moment, Crumbzz and Shipthur possess a much better synergy and are thus capable of disrupting invades or winning 2v2 skirmishes easily. In my opinion, both junglers will have different focus points in the match. While Crumbzz will focus mid/top, Dexter will do his best to spearhead his bot lane and mid – a scenario which once again favours Dignitas.
Finally, Shiphtur comes into play. Although he was relatively “quiet” during the games against TSM, he is a much more reliable laner than Link when it comes to the “big” or high-pressure games. His solo performances against CLG during his time with Coast are legendary to this day. Possessing both offensive and defensive capabilities as a player, he will have to juggle both given the giant target that will be painted on his back. Unless Dexter, Link or both go above and beyond, I give this match-up to Shiphtur.
Overall, Dignitas will edge out CLG either 3-1 or 3-2. They have what it takes to bounce back and know how to focus on their strengths more than anything else. While CLG is a very tough opponent to face for your LCS future, I am fully confident in the DIG line-up. Go Dignitas!
TSM Vs. LMQ - 6 Predict LMQ, 2 Predict TSM
Why TSM will win - by Nilu ‘Dooraven’ Kulasingham (@dooraven)
As the only person to predict a TSM victory in both predictions, I suppose it is appropriate that I write why TSM will beat a team that has been top two for ten out of the eleven weeks of the North American LCS. If I’m wrong, feel free to quote me and sling mud. Alright off we go:
Statistics state the following: LMQ has a much lower game time than TSM (TSM’s is higher than the League average by quite a bit), a much higher GPM and a higher Kills/Assists per minute while TSM have a lower Deaths per minute and a higher CS per minute than their counterparts. The stats back up the general feel of the two teams, LMQ”s aggressiveness is clearly shown and TSM’s well, average split is also displayed prominently. Additionally, statistics such as the ones displayed in this image show a not too rosy picture for TSM fans for this upcoming set.
Yet as the adage of “Lies, damned lies, and statistics” goes, statistics may paint a distorted reality of what may be happening. TSM’s set against Dignitas whilst pretty bad, was according to Dyrus one of their weaker performances and according to various North American players, TSM has been looking strong in scrims.
Scrims, of course aren’t everything, otherwise Alliance would never had their 0-4 start in Spring. Generally this is because teams play more aggressive in scrims rather than in the LCS so teams formed with soloq stars make a stronger team in practise than in stage due to the sheer number of mistakes that happen in practise, after all, practise is useless if you don’t test your limits. For example, Prolly in the latest Summoning Insight stated that when he played XWX in scrims, XWX would have like 50 cs but was 5/0 in comparison to his standard LCS farming play;
So if TSM is doing well in Scrims, that means they should be doing well against teams that play aggressively, something required against LMQ in the LCS who possess a very high KAPM (kills assists per minute) and a high DPM (deaths per minute) versus TSM’s generally low one.
Of course, I haven’t even included the major drama and roster changes that happened between super-week and the playoffs. It’s clear that during the time of superweek at least, LMQ were severely affected by the ongoing conflict between A&K Esports and Luyu Esports LLC and their games were especially sloppy. The team may have recovered a bit now that the drama has had time to cool off (even though we still are not sure about what happened with that).
The loss of their Coach will certainly affect them though, as while the benefits of a remote coach are being discussed in the League of Legends community, a full time, onsite coach has been proven to be invaluable in just about every sport, even in esports.
TSM’s recruitment of Lustboy is undoubtedly a boost to their struggling bottom lane. Turtle and Lustboy have grown to be a strong botlane as Lustboy can control “The Cat” and guide him into displaying strong performances. Time will tell how strong this botlane really is, but Lustboy’s vision control especially has aided TSM a significant amount in their games versus Dignitas. Lustboy vs Mor should be interesting to watch.
The final point I’d like to make is the resurgence of the assassin metagame. XWX was demoted to Royals B team because he couldn’t really play assassins at the level required, it’s a common misconception to say he was a bad mid laner, he was just not a snowballing one where snowballing was the metagame. We all know how proficient Bjergsen is with assassins and he’s proven that he can solo carry games in a metagame that is favourable to him. The metagame seems to be making a resurgence for the patch that worlds is played on.
Under the coaching of Locodoco, and If Bjergsen of Season 3 and Season 4 Spring shows up with his assassins, then TSM will win this match up.
Why LMQ will win - by Duncan ‘Thorin’ Shields (@Thooorin)
The lesson of this regular split has been that you simply won’t win, at least with any kind of consistency, by fighting LMQ on their terms. Their terms means lots of small and aggressive skirmishes, whenever they decide to go in on you. Their terms means forcing big team-fights at the dragon and baron, never willing to give them up. Their terms means focusing on more kills and fights over objectives. Teams that have been willing to battle on those terms, with Dig, CLG and LMQ all coming to mind, have lost a number of key games this split by finding themselves bested in those areas. LMQ are very good at what they do and most teams are only to happy to oblige.
The kind of team that has a chance of beating LMQ is C9, who can choose better team-fights to take part in and understand how to grind an opponent down solely from objective control and map pressure, at times. TSM have the tools to team-fight with LMQ, but not consistently beat them in that area. Considering how poor TSM’s objective control and shot-calling was in the Dig series, I don’t see them taking this series. I think there is a very high chance of this finishing 3:0 to LMQ.
C9 Vs. Crs - 8 Predict C9, 0 Predict CRS.
Why C9 will win - by Daniel ‘Spellsy’ Biery (@Spellsylol)
Cloud 9 is the clear favorite of this matchup, as shown by every one of our staff predicting Cloud 9 over Curse, and while the red-hot CRS is the last team I think Cloud 9 want to face, they still are the heavy favorites. I wanted to pull some facts to show why Cloud 9 is such a fearsome playoff team and why everyone predicted the victory for C9.
Cloud 9’s Playoff pedigree and success in the second half.
As many know, Cloud 9 is undefeated in the playoffs, with a 10-0 record. This is crazy when looking at the second best playoff team record wise CLG who has just a 57% win rate (8-6 before this split). On top of that, despite C9 looking shaky this split (the most losses in a split so far), C9 ended the second half strong with the most wins (10 in last 14). On top of that they are 3-1 against Curse. From a win-loss perspective, they outshadow Curse in every way and have an unprecedented amount of success in the playoffs.
Cloud 9 counters CRS’s early game strength.
When we discussed CRS vs CLG I mentioned how CRS had the edge because of their ability to win early game and CLG’s inability to come back. The opposite is true for Cloud 9 though, as they have the second highest comeback rate after a deficit at 20 minutes, making 6 comebacks in 15 deficits (only behind LMQ’s 7 comebacks in 12 deficits). Also Cloud 9 doesn’t tilt like CLG does, instead C9 is actually a really tough out. C9 averages the most towers killed in losses and the highest GPM in losses. C9 goes out kicking and screaming, meaning CRS will not be able to easily snowball their lead like they did against CLG. To add on to that CRS is actually weak in the 10-20 minute phase, one where C9 excels, and CRS actually has thrown the most leads between 10 and 20 minutes of any team. I predict that CRS will be able to get ahead with a FB in the early game, but as soon as CRS makes a mistake (most likely a map-movement mistake) C9 will capitalize with a swift teamfight or objective, bringing the game back in C9’s court.
Balls is the top laner that can stand up to Quas
In the CRS-CLG series we saw a big focus on Quas. Especially in the second game as they attempted to camp him but he still recovered and was honestly one of the best players in that series. Unfortunately for him he is going against Balls, who was maybe slumping in the first half of the split but has regained his mojo. The solos will really be key in this game and I believe C9 has the edge.
While CRS is on their hot streak and should have a lot of momentum going into the next round of playoffs C9 has a historic advantage that is too much to overcome, and while they have had a shaky split they should have enough to overcome CRS.
Why CRS might win - by Hunter Leigh (@HunterBLeigh)
Anyone challenging C9 knows they have an uphill battle. As Spellsy stated, C9 is an incredibly strong playoff team historically. We all picked C9 to win, which is one clear indication of why Curse might win. C9’s only missteps during the regular season were against clearly inferior opponents who they didn’t take seriously. Those teams, when going in with nothing to lose and not afraid, were able to surprise a lackadaisical C9 and snowball to victory.
Curse has a strong early game and they should get out to early leads. They also play smart and safe from there, which might help them maintain their lead and slowly close out a game. It will only take one major mistake, but if they can stay mistake free from 10 minutes on, they can win this series. It not a certainty, it’s far from likely, but it’s possible.
But if anyone is in position to play perfectly, it’s Curse. They have a ton of momentum coming into this match, having swept CLG after closing the season strong. They have unorthodox picks and are capable of surprising teams. If it was going to happen, this is the time.
