Over valued or Under valued follow up: An analysis of player’s performance in European LCS
After the strong interest in the last edition of this article analyzing the overvalued and undervalued NA players, we are back to make a European version, breaking down the stats for the key players in EU LCS.
Intro
The struggle with League of Legend analytics has been that LoL at its heart is a team game, and it is different than typical sports because of the snowball factor inherent in these types of games. When looking at sports analytics, Lebron or Kobe could score 50 points any given night, win or lose. This is completely different in LoL, as winning teams, by clearing out base towers, securing objectives, and getting more powerful as the game goes on, naturally get more gold and kills. In fact, the winning side averages over 4 times more KDA, and somewhere between 20% and 35% more GPM when winning vs losing in EU LCS. The full breakdown is in this chart:
So, this winning-bias can often invalidate common analysis of raw KDA and GPM. Instead of a player getting a better kda because they are "performing better", instead they are just getting it because they are winning more. That in combination with the fact that we know this game is a team game, so a player can play "well" in a game, but still lose, made me want to create a winning-bias free model to compare players and see where players underperformed or overperformed over the season.
The Methodology:
To properly see which players are overperforming vs underperforming , I took into account a player's win-loss ratio and weighted their kda/gpm/minion kills against a "dummy" player with equal wins and losses. So, for example, if we look at Froggen, the "MVP" of this last split. At season-end, his average KDA was 5.9, with a win-loss record of 16-12. So this means that a "standard" mid player with 16 wins and 12 losses would have 16 games with 7.08 KDA and 12 games with 2.06 KDA, leading to a weighted average of (16*7.08 + 12*2.06)/28=4.929. Then compare Froggen's actual KDA of 5.9 to this dummy "standard" mid player's kda of 4.929, he has an improvement of 22% over his expected KDA of 4.93, which means he is exceeding expectations.
As follows is the breakdown of each stat, KDA, GPM, and Minion Kill per Minute, as following the methodology above. A note, the fluxuation for something like GPM is less because as we saw in the above chart, GPM fluctuates less compared to Minion Kills or KDA, so a 5% above-average rating is very high, compared to KDA where a very-high rating is something like 20-30%.
Another thing to note, is that KDA, GPM, and CSPM, even when weighted in such a way to reduce winning bias, doesn't hold the same value for each role. CSPM is a highly valued stat for Top and ADC, but not so much for someone like Support. Similarly, since Jungle and Support role is more of a set-up role, these stats hold a bit less weight for those roles.
Thorin will go on here to break down who is overrated vs. underrated:
Breakdown by Thorin - Top laners
kev1n's KDA number is so good it goes off the chart. This split has been a tragedy for kev1n, as he has always been the top EU Top laner who always flew just under the radar of being at a star player level, yet is so consistent in putting up numbers and playing well. Even on the worst team in the league, he still managed to put together a very good season. Remember, this is the man who Alliance could have had at Top lane rather than Wickd. I'd say kev1n is underrated, in as much as he never been given that same status that Wickd or even Darien has had, yet he's continued to grind away season after season. With that said, there is a small undercurrent that seems to acknowledge he is an underrated player. He's one of those players I consider stuck in "bad team-mate prison".
sOAZ is the next to jump off the page at you and I think has had an underrated season. People will now, conveniently, claim they always considered him the best, being as his team has won the league, but that wasn't the case for much of the season. In the tank Top meta people looked to other players and bandwagoned their single game or week successes. When fnatic went into their nose-dive losing streak, sOAZ drew a lot of the blame. People questioned his picks, his builds and his motivation to want to play the game. At the end of the split though, the best Top laner in EU LoL history was stood back at the top again. Phenomenal numbers for sOAZ, who I imagine gets a lot of the extra kills thanks to his sense for when to roam down the map and help out Mid.
The rest of the EU Top laners are fairly even in KDA, though Youngbuck's very low number is perhaps a surprise. Youngbuck has had his games where he drew praise and seemed to be battling for recognition, but these numbers across the board are pretty poor. Darien has had a pretty bad season all in all, definitely one of the weakest spots for Gambit and overly buoyed up by the games in which his IDGAF style worked out for him. Xaxus has always been overrated, so these numbers don't come as much of a surprise to me.
The biggest surprise is fredy122's stats, where on one hand he has completely killed it in farming, but on the other he has a fairly underwhelming KDA for someone who finished in the best team in the league during the regular portion of the split. Wickd shows very good farming numbers, even if his KDA dip suggests he is one of the men due to draw the lasting blame for Alliance's problems this split.
Junglers
I've frequently heard some in the community try to suggest that notions of Diamondprox still being Europe's best Jungler come just from those stuck in some nostalgic trance, believing that this is still 2012 and Season 2. The playoffs didn't do much to help with that, but I think with a good reason behind why that was. In the two playoff series, against Jankos and Amazing, the case could well be made that Diamond was battling two of the top three junglers in EU right now. Anyway, Diamond's numbers across the board speak for themselves, so playoff ills aside he continued to show himself to be Europe's premiere player at the position. Amazingly, I think he probably has been underrated this split.
Amazing's KDA is very impressive, especially on a team that lost so many games, and would suggest that he is a player probably in need of an upgrade in terms of team, which seems about right. Jankos proved to be one of the Roccat players who survived their highs and lows and established himself as a consistently good player, which all of his numbers here show. Shook was so heavily hyped coming into the season, but has been perhaps the most up-and-down player on Alliance.
Cyanide's spread is a little tricker to read than all the rest, but I would hazard a guess that a lot of time spent helping the monster laners in his team, but them getting the kills from the ganks or CS from the pressure, is why he fails to show up with any significance in the stats. fnatic are not a team that need a big performance from the Jungler, it is very much a support position on their heavily talent stacked team. I do think Cyanide has been overrated, since the worst players in teams which repeatedly win will often be unduly put up to the same level, relative to their position, as their star players. Plus, as long as he is winning and his unselfish playing style works then he doesn't need that undeserved praise.
Svenskeren had weeks where he seemed unstoppable, and it's clear the impact he had on SK's effective and tactically-driven style, but his KDA suggests that his off games really brought him back down to Earth, leading me to think him a little overrated. Impaler and Araneae both had poor seasons and I don't think anyone rates them highly, so enough said there.
Mid Laners
Froggen is the best Mid laner in Europe and perhaps the best Western LoL player for the period the last split of LCS has covered, that's my opinion and that's what the stats here would suggest. He not only has excellent stats in every category, but the sheer gap between him and everyone else, in individual stats and collectively, should highlight what a monster season he has had. Take into account how poorly results went for Alliance early on, which is what drew him a lot of the ire of anti-fans, and this has truly been a special season for the ex-CLG.EU Mid star. He won the MVP, so I can't say he is underrated, though some still deny him his due and make up some nonsense about Shook camping his lane or him just farming up, poor excuses all around.
xPeke's team just won their third split, but his KDA here really tells the tale of his troubled season. He may still be the fan favourite, as the All-Star polls show, but he has been far from consistent or a dominant force in the Mid lane. The xPeke of old would have put up numerous monster individual games, pumping that KDA up, but this time around it has been more a story of sOAZ and Rekkles as the stars of fnatic. Traditionally, xPeke was one of the hard carries of his team, but this season he has been a little overrated at times, even if he has also finally seen some criticism in Fnatic's losing streak.
The other Mid in the EU trinity, Alex Ich, was even more underwhelming this season. Considering the excellent season Diamond has had, one would expect to see that reflected in good numbers for Alex, as the Jungler has typically gotten his Mid lane star ahead in games, as a historical trend. Instead, Alex is showing us terrible KDA numbers here. His farming and gold are excellent, showing that he still excels in that S2 approach that Froggen has once again shown us can work very effectively, but Alex is a player we're used to seeing cleaning up all the team-fight kills for Gambit and leading them to the win, as he did in the final game against CPH Wolves in the relegation playoff. I've seen enough criticism drawn by the Russian, so I'm not sure he is overrated, but possibly a little.
Kerp's KDA is impressive, but then his farming is terrible. Early on people seemed to want to suggest he had the potential to become one of the best in the Mid lane, but I think these numbers and the record of Millenium show that the Creaton and kev1n shown is in need of a new supporting cast. Moopz was fairly insignificant in terms of impact on SHC's games, with poor but not appalling stats across the board. Cowtard gave a good account of himself in some of the playoff games, but his regular season was really dreadful in all respects.
The name I want to highlight now is Overpow, who was without a doubt overrated in this split. Some called him the best player in EU at Mid and the star of Roccat. Instead, I think it's been shown that Roccat win more due to style than carrying from specific positions. Overpow was great the first few weeks, but his return from the stratosphere has been a reason as to why Roccat themselves dropped in the standings, as his good but not amazing numbers here show.
AD Carries
Creaton has to be one of the most unlucky players in EU LoL history, when you consider the number of periods in which he has performed well and gotten next to nothing from his teams, in terms of results. This season saw him again show he is one of the best fighting ADCs, yet finish bottom of the entire league despite doing everything he could. To finish bottom of the league, yet have such a monster KDA and every category of stat in the positive, as an AD Carry, is very legit.
Rekkles was battling Froggen for regular season MVP, in many people's minds, and his numbers are all good here. As is well known, he farms like a beast and his contribution in terms of kills is good, though not unduly exceptional. All in all, he is about where he should be in terms of numbers and reputation.
Three players with quite curious stats are Tabzz, Genja and MrRallez. The latter was one of the few lights on SHC, though his farming numbers here really drag down any of the praise he has sometimes gotten in the past. Genja is always underrated, for my money, as he simply showcases a unique style in terms of how he contributes to team-fights, as the KDA numbers here show. Tabzz began slowly, but by the playoffs he had become the second star of Alliance, in my mind.
CandyPanda was considered an elite ADC earlier on in the split, so his KDA here probably does suggest he was overrated. Still, his other stats are fine and his team's style was not one which required him to hard carry and put up monster numbers of kills to win games. Celaver has been heavily overrated this season, his KDA here shows that even those games where they do create fights in which he kills a lot, in the long run he more than counteracts that with the games in which you barely notice him. Despite playing with one of the new stars at Support, all of his numbers in the negative.
FORG1VEN is tough to read, as his farming stats are very good and he was one of the strongest points of his team this split, but that KDA is really poor. Think of his team and it's not as if they boast a hard carry, so with the wins they did manage to get one would expect FORG1VEN to have been putting up reasonable KDA numbers. I think the highs of earlier in the season mean we must consider him a little overrated, even if the public's recent turn on him probably means a number of people now irrationally will say they never thought he was good anyway.
Support
YellOwStaR never seems to truly get his due. When he made puszu look like a top quality ADC people gave credit to puszu (remember those guys saying they should have kept him over Rekkles? lol) and now with Rekkles, it's impossible, seemingly, for the public to take their eyes off the blond-haired Swede to take a look at what the Frenchman is doing. In the lane, YellOwStaR is a monster at trades and going all-in, as his KDA here shows. He was already fast becoming elite in S3, and the new meta for Supports has only seem him shine even more. Europe's best Support without a doubt, all things considered, and a little underrated at least.
Edward's KDA here is crazy, especially when you consider this is the original blood-thirsty Support. The man who used to get the kills while Genja farmed is now showing an inability to do so and often giving up first blood. As long as he plays with Genja, who the public seemed to draw an almost perverse pleasure from ridiculing, I think Edward will always be somewhat expempted from full criticism, so I'll have to say here that he probably hasn't been noticed as a hole in the team enough this split. With that said, Support will always be the trickiest position from which to judge KDA, I think it's more of an assist role myself.
Jree's numbers are really good, his mechanics certainly have remained good, but playing with Creaton really can't have hurt either. I think it's actually a sign of how poor the Millenium team was in playing as an actual team that so many of their players can have exceeded the expected KDA for a team with that many losses. This is a team that at worst should probably have been battling for the fifth spot. Jree probably is a little overrated, since it's not like anyone calls him one of the worst Supports in LCS EU, yet among this crowd he is easily in the bottom four playing and probably closer to bottom two.
Migxa actually won an MVP award in LCS EU, what a world we live in. Not only did he record the most deaths in the league, playing with an ADC who put up great KDA numbers, but if his Thresh had been at the level his most ardent fans had suggested, then his kills here would likely be a lot higher. He is one of the names I instantly thought of when someone pointed out that any Support who pulls off some mechanical plays on Thresh gets labelled a god.
nRated, Vander and Nyph are the three that all have their own charms and own claims to having had good seasons. nRated was the best player in Europe outside of the carry positions, that's the level of impact he was able to have on his team. What's interesting though, is that he did his job in terms of the stats too. I think Vander was overrated for much of the season, but more in terms of his overall level. The problem with Vander is that he only shined on two champions, so I would call anyone hailed as the best in their region overrated if that were the case. If this chart showed assists, I think he would show very good numbers though.
Nyph took a lot of flak earlier in the season, as he clearly strugged to adjust to Alliance. I think he has one of the most difficult roles in their team, as the only true supportive of any kind in that line-up. Nyph has spent his whole career underrated, but this time I think his flaws mean that he can't retain that title for this split.
Conclusion
Taking all of the graphs into account, I think the most underrated players were kev1n, Diamond and YellOwStaR. An interesting mix of players from good, bad, and middling teams. For most overrated, I have to go with Youngbuck, Shook and Celaver, who despite getting a lot of hype, these stats have shown them to be underperforming. Lastly, a few people who met expectations, the MVP Froggen showed impressive stats, while others were as expected like Amazing, and Rekkles.
Data collected with help by the onGamers Stats team: Derek 'Kathix' Adams, Steven 'whedgehead' Falgout, Kent 'Traepoint' Frasure, Jake Morales, and James 'PelkaSupaFresh' Pelkey. Design by Ben 'Sarcasmappreciated' Li.
